Originally posted on TED Blog:
Forecasting the stock market has a storied past of unfruitful predictions. But in today’s TED Talk, Didier Sornette shares how he and his research team have successfully identified unstable market bubbles and even predicted when they’ll pop. His findings, if accepted, could quite literally change the way we do business, by shifting how banks, traders and governments respond to apparent growth in individual markets.
In the talk, he hints at some of his most recent analysis: On May 17, 2013, he says, “we identified that the US stock market was on an unsustainable path, and we released on our website … that on the 21st of May, that there will be a change of course. And the next day, the market started to change course.”
We talked to him about this, and he was willing to go into more detail, starting with the graph below. On the left axis (in black) you can see the level of the S&P500’s exchange-traded fund, SPY, over the past three years. On the right (in red), you can see the level of the Crash Risk Index (CRI), his team’s forecast of the likelihood of a crash.